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☆ Regional bank earnings may expose critical weaknesses, former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Regional bank earnings may expose critical weaknesses, according to Sheila Bair, former chair of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.Their quarterly numbers begin hitting Wall Street this week. Bair, who ran the FDIC during the 2008 financial crisis, is nervous that regional bank issues from 2023 aren't fully resolved. "This is still a problem for the regional banks, and fingers crossed that there's [not] another failure. The SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) is down almost 13%, and only four of its members are positive for 2024. Her latest regional bank warning comes as the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield topped 4.6% this week and hit its highest level since November 2023.

Persons: Sheila Bair, I'm, Bair, CNBC's, aren't, We're Organizations: U.S . Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, P Regional Bank ETF, New York Community Bancorp, Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp, Kearny Financial, Columbia Banking, National Bancorp Locations: New York

☆ The economy is sending mixed signals about a recession, and that's made the timing of the next rate cut less meaningful
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is sending mixed signals about a potential recession in the near future, according to Ned Davis Research. The conflicting data suggests the Fed should de-emphasize when it will cut interest rates. AdvertisementThe US economy is sending mixed signals about when the next recession will arrive. Other economic indicators that measure manufacturing activity have been improving lately and argue for a long runway of economic growth ahead. That advice appears especially poignant following the release of the hotter-than-expected March CPI report, which plunged the probability of the first Fed interest rate cut happening in June from 50% to about 20% and pushed out the likelihood of a rate cut to July.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe

☆ One way to help American homebuyers? Do what the Dutch do.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Cork Gaines | Eliza Relman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Dutch offer home mortgages with evolving interest rates that can automatically decrease over time. However, other countries are taking notice: The Dutch mortgage lender DMFCO recently began offering Dutch-style mortgages in the UK. AdvertisementBut there are some deeply entrenched features of the American mortgage system that make it unlikely we'll see widespread adoption of Dutch-style mortgages. AdvertisementAdditionally, mortgage interest rates in the US aren't determined by the loan-to-value ratio beyond a certain point. AdvertisementBut Cecela says he's interested to see what happens with the Dutch-style mortgages newly on offer in the UK.

Persons: —, Lindsey Harn, Lindsey, Harn, Guy Cecala, Cecala, Melissa Cohn, Raveis, Cohn, he's Organizations: Service, Business, Lindsey Harn Group, Mortgage, Mortgage Finance, USA Locations: Netherlands, San Luis Obispo County , California, Europe

A pedestrian carrying an umbrella walks along the River Thames in view of City of London skyline in London, Britain, July 31, 2023. Finance executives, consultants and headhunters interviewed by Reuters predict subdued deal flows, modest bonuses for most and heavy job cuts in 2024. "2023 will ultimately be one of the lowest corporate finance fee pools in modern history," said Fabrizio Campelli, head of Corporate Bank and Investment Bank at Deutsche Bank. JOB CUTSBanks have already turned to cost cuts to try to weather the downturn, which in a people-intensive business means job losses. And although some bankers expect a tough 2024, others sense an opportunity for European banks from the Basel Endgame.

Persons: Hollie Adams, Fabrizio Campelli, Banks, Ronan O'Kelly, Oliver Wyman, O'Kelly, Dominic Hook, Goldman Sachs, Vis Raghavan, JP Morgan, Morgan McKinley's, Stephane Rambosson, headhunter, Rambosson, Ana Botin, Morgan's Raghavan, there's, Oliver Wyman's O'Kelly, Deutsche's Campelli, Anousha Sakoui, Carolyn Cohn, Jesus Aguado, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, LONDON, Finance, Reuters, Corporate Bank, Investment Bank, Deutsche Bank, Organisation for Economic Cooperation, Development, Barclays, Lloyds, Challenger Metro Bank, UBS UBSG.S, Citi, Workers, Global Investment Banking, Employment, European Union, Santander, Global, Basel, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Ukraine, West, China, United States, India, Madrid

☆ US mortgage interest rates fall to two-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A more timely mortgage tracker also saw the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fall to a two-month low. The third consecutive weekly decline in both gauges comes amid signals that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates further. The dip in mortgage rates meant more would-be purchasers. The MBA's Purchase Composite Index, a measure of all mortgage loan applications for purchase of a single family home, increased 3.9% from the prior week. Sellers locked into lower mortgage rates also continue to hold their homes, keeping housing inventory tight.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Freddie Mac, Sellers, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Chizu Nomiyama, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

But they are going only as far as the safest bets in the junk category, bonds rated BB and B. Junk bond spreads, the additional interest rate investors demand over safe Treasury bonds, tightened sharply. The spreads of those rated BB and B, or the higher rungs of junk, had tightened 47-52 basis points last week, according to Informa Global Markets data. Four junk bond issuers – Bombardier (BBDb.TO), Venture Global LNG, Smyrna Ready Mix Concrete and InfraBuild Australia - announced bond offerings on Monday. The spotty access to bond markets does not bode well for poorly rated companies.

Persons: Rick Wilking, ”, Edward Marrinan, Peter Knapp, Winnie Cisar, bode, Morgan Stanley, Moody's, Manuel Hayes, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Paritosh Bansal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Nikko Securities Americas, Investors, JPMorgan, Informa, CCC, Bombardier, Venture Global LNG, “, London, Insight Investment, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Smyrna, Australia

☆ Analysis: WeWork's troubles darken outlook for embattled office market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Sinead Cruise | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Backed by Japan's SoftBank, WeWork aimed to revolutionise the office market by taking long leases on large properties and renting the space to multiple smaller businesses on more flexible, shorter arrangements. Some leveraged property investors could struggle to earn enough rental income to service rising debt costs, they said. The number and volume of real estate loans due for refinancing in 2024 is unclear because many deals are struck privately between borrower and lender, Ed Daubeney, co-head, debt and structured finance, EMEA, at real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle, told Reuters. U.S. industrial and office real estate investment trusts (REITs) were seen 35.8% more likely to default, versus expectations a year ago. "We're at a massive turning point in the real estate investment market globally," Jose Pellicer, head of real estate strategy at M&G Real Estate, said.

Persons: Kate Munsch, Japan's SoftBank, WeWork, Jeffrey Havsy, Ed Daubeney, Jones Lang LaSalle, Savills, refinancings, What's, MSCI, Jefferies, Jose Pellicer, Sinead Cruise, Elisa Martinuzzi, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Media, Real Estate, Reuters, Analysts, Europe, Flex, BNP, G, Thomson Locations: San Francisco , California, U.S, York, New York, London, United States, Europe, Britain, Germany, California

☆ WeWork's troubles darken outlook for embattled office market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Sinead Cruise | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

☆ Here's why it's so dangerous for Wall Street to bet against the American consumer
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Betting against the American consumer is a dangerous proposition," Ned Davis Research said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe American consumer has defied expectations over the past year as spending remains resilient, but Wall Street continues to anticipate a recession. The dynamic highlights why it's dangerous to bet against the American consumer, according to a Friday note from Ned Davis Research. YChartsMeanwhile, rising interest rates only impacts new loans or refinancings, and just over 75% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below 5%. Betting against the American consumer is a dangerous proposition," NDR concluded.

Persons: Ned Davis, —, Bank of America's Savita Subramanian Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, Bank of America's, NDR

☆ Beware these debt-laden stocks breaking down under the weight of higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Stocks have sold off as Wall Street accepted that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for longer to crush inflation. Corporate debt refinancings are going to start hitting profits more urgently starting in 2024, according to Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek. "[T]hat higher interest expense is likely to create a $5-$7/share headwind for S & P 500 operating EPS in 2024," Senyek said. Stocks have sold off as Wall Street accepted that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for longer to crush inflation. "[T]hat higher interest expense is likely to create a $5-$7/share headwind for S&P 500 operating EPS in 2024," Senyek said.

Persons: Stocks, Chris Senyek, —, Senyek, LSEG, RC Willey, George Frey, BAX Baxter, Lockheed Martin, Kellogg Organizations: Labor Department, Wall, Federal Reserve, Wolfe Research, CNBC, General Motors, United Auto Workers, GM, Whirlpool, Kellogg, RC, Bloomberg, Getty, Equity, Lockheed, AEP American Electric Power, Dominion Energy, Motors, Duke Energy, VZ Verizon Communications, Nasdaq, Stock Screener, Whirlpool Corp Locations: Draper , Utah

☆ Hedge fund giant Third Point reportedly facing big investor outflows in 2023 amid slumping returns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Dan Loeb's Third Point is dealing with big investor outflows in 2023, the Wall Street Journal reported. Investors have pulled funds after Loeb missed out on the huge tech rally earlier this year. The WSJ report said Loeb is now betting on an eventual credit crunch amid rising interest rates. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. According to a Friday report from The Wall Street Journal, Third Point funds have dropped by about 1.6% through August.

Persons: Dan Loeb's, Loeb, —, Dan Loeb, annualized, Steve Davis, I'm, we've, Sam Bankman Organizations: Wall Street Journal, Investors, Service, Wall Street, Journal Locations: —, Sacramento

These are tough times for the housing market. Meanwhile on Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications have plunged 28% since last year and are now at the lowest level since late 1996. After two years of a pandemic-fueled housing market frenzy and another year of rising rates and tight inventory, consumers are weary. During the pandemic, as the Federal Reserve moved to lower interest rates, mortgage rates fell to 3% and below, prompting a wave of refinancings. “Mortgage applications declined to the lowest level since December 1996, despite a drop in mortgage rates,” said Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Persons: Freddie Mac’s, ”, Lisa Sturtevant, ” Sturtevant, Joel Kan, Redfin, Niko Voutsinas Organizations: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Home Builders, Housing, Bright MLS, “, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association Locations: Washington, Chicago

☆ WeWork says it will renegotiate nearly all of its leases - and it's another sign that commercial real estate is in trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

WeWork is attempting to renegotiate all of its leases for commercial office space, according to the company. It's also worrying sign of deep trouble in commercial real estate as debts near maturity amid sagging property values. The move is a sign of the company's ongoing distress, as it navigates the aftermath of a period of unsustainable growth, but it is also a warning sign for the broader commercial real estate industry. Those "current market conditions" refer to a commercial real estate market that is under increasing pressure from higher interest rates, lingering work-from-home trends, and declining commercial real estate values. AdvertisementAdvertisementA recent report from Newmark Group suggests about $1.2 trillion in commercial real estate debt is "potentially troubled" and at risk of defaulting.

Persons: WeWork, It's, David Tolley, Tolley, Goldman Sachs, Newmark, Newmark David Bitner Organizations: Service, Newmark Group, Los Angeles Times Locations: Wall, Silicon

Aug 24 (Reuters) - Shares in online mortgage lender Better's (BETR.O) new public listing plummeted on Thursday as investors fretted over record-high mortgage rates. In the interim, roughly 95% of Aurora shareholders redeemed their holdings, leaving the trust account with just about $24 million at the end of June from about $283 million. Aurora went public in March 2021. Better is going public as U.S. mortgage rates continue to surge, with the popular 30-year fixed rate last week hitting the highest level since December 2000, helping drive mortgage applications to a 28-year low, the Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday. Reporting by Hannah Lang and Lance Tupper in Washington; Editing by Mark Porter and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Aurora, Vishal Garg, Hannah Lang, Lance Tupper, Mark Porter, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Nasdaq, Aurora Acquisition Corp, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Aurora, refinancings, Mortgage Bankers Association, Thomson Locations: SoftBank, Washington

☆ The CEO who brutally fired hundreds of the people on Zoom is taking his startup public in a move that could make or break him
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Vishal Garg is taking Better, a mortgage startup, public through a long-delayed SPAC deal. Read what he said about making strategic acquisitions and the millions in company loans that stand to be forgiven. But CEO Vishal Garg, known for brutally laying off hundreds of employees via Zoom, insists he has a plan. One former employee told Insider that the move seems like a "Hail Mary," both for Garg personally and for the business more broadly. Here is what Garg said about his vision for the company and how he will spend the money Better receives from the IPO.

Persons: Vishal Garg, Garg, SPACs, Mary, refinancings, it's, SoftBank, indemnifying, —, It'll Organizations: & Finance, Aurora Acquisition Corp, Nasdaq, World Trade Center, Federal Reserve, Silicon, Better, Mortgage, SEC, Scotsman, Aurora, Insider Locations: Garg, refinancings, Queens , NY

The Nasdaq logo is displayed at the Nasdaq Market site in Times Square in New York City, U.S., December 3, 2021. U.S. home builder confidence weakened in August, as mortgage rates and stubbornly high housing prices discouraged prospective buyers. Better enjoyed huge growth during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic when mortgage rates cratered, notching more than $850 million in revenue in 2020, filings show. When interest rates fall, Better expects huge demand for cash-out refinancings, which it says it will be able to deliver in one day. Earlier this year, Better.com launched a one-day mortgage product, allowing customers to get pre-approved, lock in a rate and get a mortgage commitment letter within 24 hours.

Persons: Vishal Garg, Garg, Better.com, Hannah Lang, Michelle Price, Mark Potter Organizations: Nasdaq, REUTERS, Federal, refinancings, Aurora Acquisition Corp, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Better, Zoom, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SoftBank, Aurora, Washington

Banks now must sacrifice profit to keep customers who are struggling to make repayments on time. Cash profit for the year ended June 30 rose 6% to A$10.16 billion, slightly ahead of analyst forecasts, but CBA put aside $A1.47 billion more in provisions due to "ongoing cost of living pressures and rising interest rates". CBA stopped offering cash payments for mortgage refinancings to lure new borrowers in June, which CEO Matt Comyn said had "weighed on our market share". CBA's mortgage book grew in line with the total market in 2023. The number of borrowers struggling to repay loans, while rising, remained below pre-pandemic levels "but these figures will rise", Comyn said.

Persons: Banks, Matt Comyn, Comyn, Australia's, Byron Kaye, Sameer Manekar, Anil D'Silva, Stephen Coates, Jamie Freed Organizations: CBA, SYDNEY, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Citi, National Australia Bank, Westpac, ANZ Group, Thomson Locations: COVID, Sydney, Bengaluru

LONDON/SYDNEY, July 31 (Reuters) - Commercial real estate investors and lenders are slowly confronting an ugly question - if people never again shop in malls or work in offices the way they did before the pandemic, how safe are the fortunes they piled into bricks and mortar? WALL OF DEBTGlobal banks hold about half of the $6 trillion outstanding commercial real estate debt, Moody's Investors Service said in June, with the largest share maturing in 2023-2026. U.S. banks revealed spiralling losses from property in their first half figures and warned of more to come. Borrowers in the UK real estate holding & development category were 4% more likely to default. But the whale could be commercial real estate in the U.S.".

Persons: Richard Murphy, Jeffrey Sherman, Charles, Henry Monchau, Bank Syz, Jones Lang LaSalle, Savills, JLL, Dhara Ranasinghe, Huw Jones, Clare Jim, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Employers, UK's Sheffield University, Reuters, Investors, Moody's Investors Service, Fed, Federal, Bank, Suisse, Washington D.C, HSBC, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, London, Los Angeles and New York, U.S, New York, Beijing, San Francisco, Tokyo, Washington, Shanghai, North America, Hong Kong

☆ Browse our database of more than 350 Wall Street headhunters to find your dream job in private equity, investment banking, or hedge funds
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Emmalyse Brownstein | Alex Morrell | Reed Alexander | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

From investment banks to hedge funds to private-equity shops, the financial industry is always on the lookout for top talent. Hedge funds are another story. As Insider recently reported, demand for inflation traders by hedge funds has been red hot. Keizner said he's also seeing demand at hedge funds that focus on credit trading and special situations, like mergers. "Single manager, directional equity hedge funds typically haven't been receiving asset inflows and as a result, there's less hiring there."

Persons: Anthony Keizner, Bobby Jain, Adam Harwood, who's, Keizner, he's Organizations: Wall, PJT Partners, Search, Citadel, Credit Suisse, Bankers, Wall Street Locations: dealmaking

☆ Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Total consumer debt hit a fresh new high in the first quarter of 2023, pushing past $17 trillion even amid a sharp pullback in home borrowing. A series of Fed rate cuts helped push 30-year mortgage rates to a low around 2.65% in January 2021. The higher rates helped push total mortgage debt to $12.04 trillion, up 0.1 percentage point from the fourth quarter. Despite rising rates, mortgage foreclosures remained low. Delinquency rates for all debt increased, up 0.6 percentage point for credit cards to 6.5% and 0.2 percentage point for auto loans to 6.9%.

☆ A housing economist shares the top 5 markets with the highest risk of price declines, plus where mortgage rates could be by year-end
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Mortgage rates are expected to be in the high fives by year-end, says Selma Hepp. Five US metros including Salt Lake City and Boise are highly vulnerable to price declines. It is a rough time for the real-estate market as mortgage rates remain volatile. Although mortgage rates are difficult to predict, Hepp says they could be in the high fives or about 5.8% by year-end. Below is a list of the markets with the highest risk of price declines, according to CoreLogic data.

☆ The coming commercial real estate crash that may never happen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"There's a lot of headaches about calamity in commercial real estate," said Kevin Fagan, director of commercial real estate analysis at Moody's Analytics. But credit in commercial real estate has performed well until now, and it's far from clear that U.S. credit issues spreading outward from real estate is likely. Analysts raised concerns that developers might default on a big chunk of $3.1 trillion of U.S. commercial real estate loans Goldman Sachs says are outstanding. "We're well aware of the concentrations people have in commercial real estate," Powell said at a March22 press conference. But there are reasons to believe lending issues in commercial real estate will be contained, Fagan said.

☆ Real estate warning: beware the backward cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The commercial real estate industry has a different kind of backward cap – one that’s also a sign of a losing streak. The cap rate comes from dividing a property’s net operating income in any given year – money from rent minus associated costs – by the asset’s value. For more than 10 years, that gap remained positive even though cap rates were falling in virtually all real estate subsectors, from shopping malls to apartments. Reuters GraphicsAsk a large-scale real estate owner – or several – about this and they are characteristically optimistic. Reuters GraphicsWhen Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the narrowed spread between cap rates and interest costs didn’t last for long.

☆ US mortgage refinancings hit 6-month high on rates drop, MBA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly index of overall home loan application volumes climbed 2.9% to notch a fourth week of gains, the longest up-streak in four years. The average contract rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, the most popular home loan, fell to a six-week low of 6.45%, MBA said. That also led the U.S. central bank to adopt a more cautious policy footing at its latest meeting last week. Refinance activity hit the lowest level since 2000 in the final week of 2022 and with the latest increase has now rebounded by more than 60%. "Most homeowners still have rates significantly lower than current levels, leaving only a small pool of borrowers with an incentive to refinance," Kan said.

☆ Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial real estate is probably the next pain point for regional banks and the stock market, according to BofA. The bank noted that US regional banks account for 68% of all commercial real estate loans. The weakness in commercial real estate is evidenced in current market prices for stocks and debt tied to the sector. This is a perfect storm for regional banks because they have so much exposure to commercial real estate loans. According to Bank of America, US regional banks account for 68% of commercial real estate loans, much more than their mega-cap banking peers.

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